An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data.     

“三个代表”与中国共产党的创立

中国近代革命需要先进生产力的领导，而同社会化大生产、先进科学技术相联系的中国工人阶级就自然成为先进生产力的代表者。工人阶级为完成其历史使命必然要求建立自己的政党。而以工人阶级为基础建立起来的中国共产党必然代表中国先进社会生产力的发展要求；当中国近代革命需要先进文化的指导时，十月革命给我们送来马克思列宁主义。当时中国文化前进方向集中体现在马克思主义同中国工人运动相结合建立无产阶级政党上面。而在马克思主义指导下建立的中国共产党必然代表中国先进文化的前进方向；中国共产党首先是代表：工人阶级利益的。但是，由于中国共产党从事的事业是为绝大多数人谋利益的事业。因此，中国共产党在代表工人阶级利益的同时也就代表了中国最广大人民群众的根本利益。     

城镇景观区域类型的文化驱动研究——以浙江省城镇为例

城镇空间蕴含的文化因素是城镇的气质所在，是城镇可持续发展的精神条件。本文通过对城镇文化驱动力的类型和特征分析，从山水文化、商贸文化和风俗信仰等角度分别解释了浙江不同区域城镇景观类型的形成和变迁，总结了文化驱动力在景观类型格局形成过程中的影响和作用，并提出相应的对策与建议。     

上海远洋渔业产业驱动力分析——基于钻石理论模型的视角

本文以上海远洋渔业为案例,基于波特钻石理论模型,构建了远洋渔业钻石模型,分析产业驱动力因素构成。研究发现,上海远洋渔业的产业驱动力主要包括五种要素,即高级生产要素资源配置能力、国际化战略、结构调整和国内优势地位等产业内部因素,以及国内外旺盛的市场需求、远洋捕捞业上下游产业联系和政府支持等外部因素,这五个决定要素之间相互影响、相互作用,共同促进了使上海远渔业的产业发展。国际规则和机会是影响产业发展的两个辅助变量,只有在国际规则的治理框架下,把握有利时机,才能更好地促进上海远洋渔业的发展。     

鄂东南丘陵地区土地利用变化及驱动力研究——以崇阳县为例

利用1996-2005年土地利用统计和社会经济统计数据,运用数理统计分析方法,选取土地利用动态变化相关模型,对鄂东南丘陵地区崇阳县的土地利用变化及其驱动力进行了分析;结果表明,土地利用结构发生了明显变化,土地利用变化速度较快,土地利用程度较高,土地利用处于调整期;人类活动对景观格局有较为明显的影响;人口、经济发展和政策是崇阳县土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。     

高职高专校园网络文化建设探析

随着大学校园网络的日益普及,校园文化与网络的结合越来越密切,校园网络文化在高校校园生活中的地位越来越重要,已成为新时期创新校园文化建设的必然选择。在分析高职高专校园网络文化建设存在问题的基础上,提出了加强高职高专校园网络文化建设的一些建议。     

企业活力的定量评价研究——神马实业股份有限公司企业活力定量评价

本文运用了定量评价的方法，从生存与发展力、应变力、竞争力和盈利力四个方面，用16个指标从不同角度对神马实业股份有限公司1994年1998年的企业活力进行了评价，并对评价结果进行了分析，客观地预测了公司未来发展的趋势。在此基础上，针对其存在的问题，提出了建立和对策。     

Analysing the forces shaping employee involvement and participation (EIP) at organisation level in liberal market economies (LMEs)

Employee involvement and participation (EIP) continues to attract significant interest from academics and practitioners alike, often in terms of so‐called newer forms of employee engagement and informal consultation. However, although the history of EIP shows that multiple channels are the norm in most organisations, it is still rare for representative, direct and informal EIP to be discussed in the same study. This article breaks new ground by developing measures for the breadth and depth of EIP, as well as analysing the forces at and beyond organisation level which shape management choices about which forms to adopt and how to embed them more deeply in organisations. Data were collected from 86 interviews and associated documentary analysis at and beyond organisational level in four liberal market economies (LMEs) (UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand) in order to identify how forces at national and organisational level shaped the breadth and depth of EIP in 25 case study organisations. The article's main conclusion is that while institutional forces – such as legislation, government action and intermediary bodies – do have an influence in LMEs, the way in which management interprets more immediate organisational forces remains significantly important in embedding EIP within organisations.     

晋江市土地利用变化及社会驱动力分析

利用1996年和2001年土地利用现状图,在GIS支持下对晋江市土地利用动态变化进行分析,并在统计软件DPS中对晋江市占的耕地、建设用地及其社会驱动因子进行灰色关联分析;结果表明,研究时段内土地利用变化幅度大,耕地、林地和未利用地净减,而水域、建设用地和园地净增,土地利用变化的社会驱动力依次为经济类因子、人口类因子及技术类因子,政策的干预作用也不容忽视。     

基于SWOT模式分析的云南食用菌产业发展战略探析

食用菌作为云南省出口创汇额排名第二位的农产品带动了地区的经济增长。文章基于SWOT模式,分析云南食用菌产业的发展战略,寻求解决云南食用菌产品的出口瓶颈的途径。